On March 21, 2023, ICAP presented a Grand Rounds on using mathematical modeling to monitor the HIV epidemic. We heard from colleagues involved in the development of the UNAIDS estimates, the use and future of the AIDS Impact Module using Spectrum software, including the in-country experience with the estimates, and how models like these can be used to triangulate available data to provide best estimates.

Presented by Mary Mahy, medical officer, UNAIDS, and team.

Mary Mahy is the director, a.i., for the Data for Impact Practice at the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. She is responsible for compiling and analyzing data on HIV epidemiology and the HIV response in countries. Dr. Mahy is a demographer by training and received her doctorate in population dynamics from the Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health.

John Stover is the vice president and director of Modeling and Analysis at Avenir Health. His work focuses on policy development, strategic planning, resource allocation, and monitoring and evaluation, primarily in the fields of HIV/AIDS and family planning. He works with the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling, and Projections to develop models for HIV estimates and projections.

Jeffrey Eaton is a reader in Epidemiology, Demography, and Applied Statistics at Imperial College London. He co-chairs the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections, a scientific advisory group that advises UNAIDS and partner organizations on the data, methods, and tools used to quantify the HIV epidemic. His research involves developing new mathematical models, statistical methods, and surveillance tools to characterize HIV epidemic trends, transmission dynamics, and the demographic impact of HIV in Africa. His team within the MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London develops software tools used by national HIV programs to produce national and subnational epidemiologic estimates to guide their response to HIV.

Anna Bershteyn, PhD, is an assistant professor at the Department of Population Health, NYU Langone. She specializes in modeling to inform disease control and prevention.

Wilford Kirungi, from Uganda’s AIDS Control Program, Ministry of Health, presented on Uganda’s experience with using the AIDS Impact Module.